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New EP - new EU? The impact of the elections on the EU institutions
Following the European Parliament elections, the next institution to be renewed is the European Commission, whose mandate is scheduled to end on 31 October. However, the future composition of the Commission (and, to a limited extent, the Parliament) depends on whether the EU will be governed by the current Nice Treaty or the new Lisbon Treaty.
Ratification
The Lisbon Treaty was devised to ease the governance of the enlarged EU but its entry into force requires ratification by all 27 Member States of the EU. As of 10 June 2009, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Germany have still not formally completed the ratification process (the Czech President is delaying signature and the German constitutional court is ensuring compliance with the German constitution).
Ireland, however, remains the largest problem, with a referendum on the Treaty looking likely to be scheduled for October 2009. The fate of the Lisbon Treaty effectively hangs on the result of this referendum, barring any difficulties elsewhere. The abatement of the threat to the position of Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, makes a general election in the UK unlikely until 2010. Any poll before the entry into force of the Treaty, coupled with a Conservative victory, would see the UK withdraw its ratification pending a referendum (that would almost certainly see the British people oppose the Treaty).
Impact on the Parliament
The Nice treaty, which currently applies, stipulates a reduction in the number of MEPS effective from the 2009 elections. Lisbon changes the equation again. The key figures are:
2009 election: 736 MEPs (down from 785 in the 2004-2009 parliament)
Post-Lisbon entry into force: 754 MEPs (753 + president), with a number of member states gaining the additional MEPs promised under the Lisbon Treaty, and Germany retaining the extra three MEPs that were elected under the Nice rules. This outcome was approved by the December 2008 meeting of the European Council.
2014 (under Lisbon): 751 MEPs (750 + president), with Germany’s delegation being reduced from 99 MEPs to 96.
Impact on the Commission
The timing of the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has thrown the appointment of the new Commission into disarray. It seems very likely, given the timing of the Irish referendum, that the current College will stay in place until the end of 2009.
It was previously thought that the decision on the next Commission president could be made as usual, in June, before the Irish referendum. However, it seems increasingly likely that EU leaders will not nominate or only ‘pre-nominate’ a candidate (most likely the current president, José Manuel Barroso).
The reason for this is that depending on whether the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, the size of the Commission could change:
Nice rules: Commission to have fewer members than the number of member states (with the Council having the ability to unanimously decide the number of commissioners). This may be circumvented with a ‘26+1′ situation, where the member state without a commissioner is compensated with the position of High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy (currently held by Javier Solana).
Original Lisbon rules: one commissioner per member state until 2014, then a reduction in the size of the Commission to a number equivalent to two-thirds of the number of member states.
Proposed Lisbon rules following the December 2008 European Council: one commissioner per member state.
As a result, some Council representatives are concerned that approving Mr Barroso ‘locks-in’ a key position, and a commissioner, for Portugal. The timetable may therefore be delayed.
Approval of the Commission president
As the EPP(-ED) group will remain the largest group in the new Parliament, Mr Barroso is likely to be put forward as the candidate for President of the Commission. He is backed by EPP leaders as well as by Socialist leaders in the UK, Spain and Portugal.
Other candidates are possible – Guy Verhofstadt, a liberal and a former Belgian prime minister, has been touted by some - but Mr Barroso seems the clear front-runner.
Should the European Council nominate him, the Parliament would then vote during its first constituent plenary session, on 15 July. With no EPP majority, nor an EPP/ALDE majority, Mr Barroso may be required to reach out across the divide to the battered Socialists, who were fiercely critical of him before the elections.
Approval of the Commission
The EU summit on 5 November will be important as it will be the occasion to assess the situation following the Irish referendum and to officially nominate candidates to be commissioners. Parliamentary hearings will then be held for incoming commissioners prior to their approval, as a College, by Parliament. The hearings will probably take place in November, with approval in December. Mr Barroso has already warned his fellow commissioners to be prepared to have their mandate extended until 31 December.
New positions
Should the Lisbon Treaty be approved, the creation of and the appointment of a new foreign affairs representative (as a Vice-President of the Commission and President of the Foreign Affairs Council) and a permanent President of the European Council would also follow. Carl Bildt (the Swedish foreign minister) and Tony Blair (the British prime minister from 1997 to 2007) respectively are considered to be front-runners.