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Coalitions

A tale of two presidencies

Talk of coalitions centred around two principal issues – or rather, elections: those of the President of the European Parliament and the President of the European Commission. On both these issues, the EPP held most of the cards: its preferred candidate for the Commission presidency, José Manuel Barroso, has been nominated by EU leaders, and the question seems to be when, rather than if, the Portuguese is approved by the Parliament, despite continued criticisms and challenges from the Left.

Polish EPP member Jerzy Buzek has become President of the European Parliament for the first half of this legislature, with Socialists & Democrats leader Martin Schulz likely to replace him for the second half.

The EPP Group leader, Joseph Daul, openly stated that a pre-condition of a deal on sharing the Parliament’s presidency is that the other party supports Mr Barroso. The Socialists do not want to support Mr Barroso, but it wished to ‘guarantee’ the Parliament presidency for 2012-14 and so will probably have to accept the EP’s approval of Mr Barroso, perhaps as early as September. Only the EPP supported an ‘early vote’ (or rather, a vote according to schedule) on 15 July.

The Liberal ALDE Group had its own candidate for EP president: British MEP and current Group leader Graham Watson. However, the Liberals decided to make a deal for committee chairmanships with the other two main Groups in an effort to have a ‘pro-European’ coalition and avoid Eurosceptics getting key positions.

On the Barroso vote, it was clear that the EPP and ALDE alone did not have a majority; even with the support of Socialist MEPs from Portugal, Spain and the UK (whose leaders have endorsed Mr Barroso) it would still be a close-run thing. In addition, many ALDE members – including some from France, Germany and Italy – have been opposed a second term for Mr Barroso. So a three-way alliance was the most effective way for the EPP to build a majority for Mr Barroso’s approval, at the expense of some key positions in the Parliament.

Support from the Conservative ECR Group cannot be guaranteed despite apparent support from the British Conservatives in a telephone call between the Tory leader, David Cameron, and Mr Barroso on the evening of the election results.

Beyond the nominations – policy coalitions

Once personnel issues have been decided, there are longer-term (and more informal) policy coalitions to be built. In the last parliament the ‘grand coalition’ in Germany, coupled with German leadership of the EPP and the Socialists (notably in the first half of the legislature) meant a de facto grand coalition in the European Parliament. The forthcoming elections in Germany could well put an end to this informal alliance. However, this depends to some extent on the power of the traditional Christian democratic parties, where there is traditional skepticism of working with free-market liberals, and a more natural affinity with the centre-left. A more economically-liberal ALDE Group, and an EPP divested of the free-market Czechs and Brits (now in the ECR), could help push the EPP closer to the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) on some socio-economic issues.

In an interview for EurActiv, Burson-Marsteller Brussels’ Michiel van Hulten notes how the EPP and Socialists & Democrats are likely to work together in arguing for stricter financial regulation.

An EPP-S&D pact is also the only two-party alliance that holds a majority in the Parliament: the EPP and ALDE fall short, and would rely on the ECR and other right-wing free marketers to win – particularly on internal market issues, where the EPP and ALDE (with the UEN) usually voted together in the last parliament.

However, the ECR is not the same as the UEN; it is more right-wing and more dominated by free market elements (the British Conservatives and the Czech Civic Democrats). Furthermore, given the antipathy to the ECR within the EPP, it could be suggested that such a coalition may be something about which the EPP may be quite wary.

On the Left, even an alliance of the GUE/NGL, Greens/EFA, S&D and ALDE would not overcome the Right. This could have important consequences on civil liberties and immigration issues, where these parties traditionally vote together.

Finally, with regard to constitutional issues, there is likely to be a continued united front between the EPP, Socialists & Democrats and Liberals. More than 80% of the candidates elected to the Parliament support the Lisbon Treaty and this will be reflected in the Parliament’s voting in opposition to the Eurosceptic, ‘withdrawalist’ and extremist elements in the new legislature.

David O’Leary

For more information about voting patterns in the European Parliament, please visit www.votewatch.eu.